Grant and Theresa's Life Prep

Making Plans and Achieving Goals

12% Rate of Return??

“I’m going to have over ten million dollars by the time I retire!”  I heard one of my colleagues proclaiming this to a few others sitting around the lunch table.  Myself being the resident money nerd had to walk over to listen.  I mean I want ten million dollars too.  We work for the same company so whatever he is doing I should be able to copy?  He was really excited talking about setting up contributions to a Roth IRA in addition to his 401k and how easy it was all going to be.  I listened for awhile without asking any questions but then I simply had to.

Me: Brian (not real name), what kind of rate of return are expecting?

Brian:  I am being conservative (literally said this) and using 12% rate of return.

Where Does 12% Rate of Return Come From

When I heard Brian say this I knew exactly what flavor of kool-aid he had been drinking.  Dave Ramsey is the only person in the financial world that I have ever heard of using this 12% number.  He preaches it like it is an absolute certainty.  Dave also has one of the largest followings of all the financial gurus so lots of people are hearing this.

Dave comes up with 12% based on the S&P 500 had a market average return of 12% since 1926.  He also argues that if you pick good mutual funds you can easily outperform that 12% number.  He has been challenged on this by many people and has always doubled down on this claim.  He says to pick mutual funds with a 10-year history of returns over 12% and recommends working with a financial advisor.

The Problem With 12% Rate of Return

This 12% number is an average rate of return and not the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR).  The CAGR is the number you want because that is real money in your pocket.  The simple example is if I invest $1,000 and the market drops -50% the first year I have $500.  If it then goes up 100% the next I am back at $1,000 with an average rate of return of 50% but not having made any money.  In the same example, your CAGR would correctly be 0%.  The CAGR of the S&P 500 is 10% since 1926.  200 base points lower.

His 12% Rate of Return does not include any fees.  Fees can absolutely crush your returns.  Index funds will have fees of around 0.1% but Dave recommends loaded mutual funds and working with a financial advisor.  You would be on the extreme low end if you were only paying 1.2% in fees per year in that scenario.  Using Dave’s 12% return the difference from fees is millions at retirement.

    Taken from 401kfee.com assuming 12% return, and the difference between an average mutual fund fee vs an index fund.

The Dangers of 12% Rate of Return

Dave would argue that I am just being a nerd and that I need to put the calculator away and start making some money.  He has said that even if he is half wrong you are still a millionaire.  Unfortunately with how compounding interest works that if you are half wrong it could mean the difference between well off and poverty.

Let us take my friend Brian from early with some hypothetical numbers.  He is 40 years old and is planning to work till 66.  He doesn’t have much saved now but is starting to save 15% of his $60,000 per year salary like Dave recommends.  A 12% rate of return leaves him with $1.7 million at age 66.  Far cry from his 10 million but still a nice nest egg to live off.  However, at 6% he only has $600,000.  That is almost a third of what he thought he would have.  A 4% withdrawal rate gives you $24,000 per year for expenses.  Adjust for inflation at age 66 and you can see hard times ahead for my friend.

Dave is extremely conservative in everything he teaches about when comes to emergency funds, debt, credit cards, paying cash and mortgages.  However, his investment advice is as risky and reckless as anyone I have ever heard of.  Assume 12% rate of return, plan for an 8% withdrawal rate in retirement and keep your investments 100% in stocks.

If you take Dave’s advice when you are young you will probably be fine by age 65.  Even if you don’t have 10 million dollars.  If you assume a 12% rate of return when you are starting at age 40 and older it could mean having to work well beyond age 65.

What Rate of Return To Use

If 12% is no good what rate of return should we be using?  To be honest I don’t recommend using a fixed number.  Depending on what I’m looking at I like to use Personal Capital‘s retirement guide, FireCalc.com or CFireSim.com.  With these calculators, you are looking at thousands of different scenarios over different time periods in history.  This will give you a realistic range of what to expect.

If I do need to assume a percentage I will typically use 7.5%.  This is not a magic number but what I would call a realistic but slightly conservative figure.  Over most 30 year periods, you would have ended up doing better than 7.5%.  Again you should not be looking for a perfect number as nothing can predict future returns.

Conclusion

Assuming a 12% Rate of  Return on your investments is dangerous and nothing in history says you can expect that over the long term.  Use a more conservative value or better yet use the calculators I mentioned to plan your nest egg.  If you end up getting 12% or better returns then you can just stop working earlier.  Much nicer feeling than getting to 55 and realizing you are 20 plus years away.

The final nail in the 12% Rate of Return coffin is Dave will never name a fund.  He claims there are hundreds that perform better than 12% but has never named one.  Instead, he recommends you contact one of his certified financial advisors who will attempt to take your returns down to about 2%.

This article kind of turned into me attacking Dave but he is the only person I know who uses that figure.  I think Dave gives some really sound advice for your average person covered in debt.  His investment advice is dangerous on many levels though.

So what rate of return do you use?  Am I being too hard on Dave?

 

-Grant

15 Comments

  1. wow that is a high rate of return. Would not recommend using that when making assumptions for retirement, that is for sure. I assume 6%-7% when I use my calculations, because I would rather be much more conservative with my calculations and be pleasently surprised with the end results than expect a result and be disappointed when the amount is less. That is just me though!

    Bert

    • Yeah, I am totally with you on being conservative with your calculations. Nothing bad happens if you are conservative. You just end up saving more and being pleasantly surprised if your returns are higher. That is why I am amazed that Dave Ramsey preaches the 12% like it is gospel.
      Grant recently posted…12% Rate of Return??My Profile

  2. Like Dividend Diplomats I think 6-7% is much more realistic. However, I think Mr. Bogle as well as others have said they think that returns might even been lower than that for the foreseeable future which will be a little disappointing. Even more disappointing if you expected a 12% return though.

    • I saw where Bogle was saying something like 3% over the next ten years. That will be pretty depressing if that turns out to be true. However, I have been hearing that the market was over valued and another crash was coming for the last three years. So like always I will just stay the course with my index funds while strongly considering getting our first rental.

  3. Oh dear, Dave is setting himself up for a lot of disappointment.

    It seems pretty reckless for any financial planner/adviser to be spouting off that 12% figure. It makes me a sad to think of all the individuals and families out there who expect a wonderful, stress free retirement based on that number.
    Owen @ PlanEasy recently posted…First-Time Home Buyer? Boost Your Down Payment!My Profile

    • That is the amazing thing is Dave Ramsey is one of if not the most popular financial guru’s out there. His most popular book has over 4,500 reviews on Amazon. I just think about all of the millions of people out there who are counting on that 12% and won’t save enough.

      Thanks for sharing. Sounds like all of us bloggers should be the gurus 😉

  4. Grant,

    I love this post! Dave Ramsey is my hero, but this is the one area that I just don’t agree with his logic. Assuming a 12% rate of return is a great way to underfund your retirement accounts and end up with a whole lot less than you expected. I base all of my numbers on 6%, then I can hopefully be pleasantly surprised if I do better than expected.
    Amy

    • Hey Amy,

      I think Dave is the best when it comes to getting and staying out of debt but his advice on investing just kills me. I use to be one of his biggest fans but now I’m hesitant to even recommend his books because I disagree with so much of the investing for retirement advice.

  5. Great points! Dave Ramsey is a very wise man, but his insistence on 12% is ridiculous. 7.5% is a good number. I usually use a range from 5% – 8%. And even worse, outperforming 12% is laughable. Don’t get me wrong, there are certain types of investments that have a higher rate of return than the average market % throughout history.

    Just put your money into an index fund and forget about it!
    Lance @ My Strategic Dollar recently posted…Your Home Is Not An AssetMy Profile

    • The scary thing is all the people out there who are retiring and running out of money or getting to age 60 and realize they are 20 years away. A man who is so conservative that says you can’t buy groceries with a credit card also encourages assuming 12% earnings. Like you said Dave has some wonderful advice but his investing advice is scary/dangerous.

  6. My annual dividends cover 83% of our expenses and the other 17% comes from social security. At the end of the year, our income exceeds our expenses. So, in theory, we shouldn’t need to withdraw from our principal even if there’s a dip in dividends. Truth be told, I don’t worry much about the dips and climbs of the stock market. I invest at the beginning of the year and then again around August.

    However, I’ve run some numbers and based on our current net worth and expenses, we could live beyond 100 years with the 4% rule. If you assume 2 or 3% inflation, I think that a 7% return is reasonable. If you guys are getting returns of 12%, I’m moving to the USA (I’m Canadian)!

    • No one is getting 12%. One of our most famous financial guru’s here likes to preach that you should expect it though.

      That is awesome you have your expenses completely covered with passive income. Once you can make it to about 30 years it doesn’t take much more to last a hundred.

  7. You can get above average returns but it usually requires more work to get it and it involves more risk as well. For example, real estate can bring over 10% returns in the second year, taking into account rents + home/apartment appreciation. But, working with tenants isn’t going to be that easy.
    Alex @ Asset plus recently posted…Small steps towards financial independenceMy Profile

    • Hey Alex, I completely agree that big returns are out there but my issue is expecting those kinds of returns. Also, Dave is talking about Mutual Funds performing better than 12%, not individual stocks or real estate.

      Thanks for sharing.

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